Core Kernel & Pipeline Infrastructure

The state estimation kernel, the estimator interface, and the multi-stage pipeline runner — the three real files the Pipeline Orchestrator and the Reasoning Chain actually run on top of.

STATE_ESTIMATION_KERNEL_v8.py — the real kernel

The current core kernel: David Smith vectors V1-V9, cross-wiring synthesis across 20 real wirings, diagnostic generation, tilt detection integration (gracefully degrades when TiltDetector isn't available — try/except ImportError falls back to None rather than crashing), and regime-local confidence calibration. Real class name: WhiteboxStateEstimationKernel — not StateEstimationKernel, a mismatch the Pipeline Orchestrator originally had wrong.

class WhiteboxStateEstimationKernel:
    def estimate_state(self, system_id: str, system_data: Dict[str, Any]) -> StateEstimationResult:
        """Runs the real vector engine across V1-V9, cross-wires them,
        classifies a regime, and returns full provenance."""
        vector_readings = []
        for v_id in range(1, 10):
            value, confidence = self.vector_engine.compute_vector(v_id, system_data)
            vector_readings.append((v_id, value, confidence))
        # ... cross-wiring synthesis across 20 real wirings, then:
        regime = self._classify_regime(synthesized_channels)
        return StateEstimationResult(regime=regime, channels=synthesized_channels, ...)

Each of the 9 vectors gracefully degrades on missing data — real code, not aspirational:

if "spreads_bps" in data:
    spread_val = data["spreads_bps"]
    # ... real computation using it
else:
    return (0.0, 0.3)  # neutral value, low confidence -- not a crash

Real execution, run fresh

k = WhiteboxStateEstimationKernel()
r = k.estimate_state('TEST-001', {'spreads_bps': 45.0, 'volatility': 0.22, 'sentiment_bias': 0.15, 'past_returns': 3.2})
print('Regime:', r.regime.value)
print('Channels:', [(c['name'], round(c['aggregate_value'],4)) for c in r.channels])
>>> Regime: MATURING
>>> Channels: [('Strength', 0.1486), ('Dynamics', 0.1405), ('Interaction', -0.0165), ('Context', 0.1173)]

# Graceful degradation check -- completely empty input, should not crash
r2 = k.estimate_state('TEST-002', {})
print('Empty input regime:', r2.regime.value)
>>> Empty input regime: MATURING

Worth stating plainly rather than glossing over: the empty-input case returned the same regime (MATURING) as the populated case. That confirms the kernel doesn't crash on missing data — it doesn't, on its own, confirm the regime classification is meaningfully sensitive to real input variation. That's a separate, still-open question, not answered by this test.

base_estimator.py — the interface every estimator implements

Small, real, and exactly what it claims to be — no more, no less:

class BaseEstimator(ABC):
    """All estimators must implement:
    - fit(): Learn from data (can be a no-op for some estimators)
    - predict(): Return a dictionary with at least a 'score' key
    """
    def __init__(self, name: str):
        self.name = name

    @abstractmethod
    def fit(self, data: np.ndarray, **kwargs) -> None: ...

    @abstractmethod
    def predict(self, data: np.ndarray, **kwargs) -> Dict[str, Any]: ...

Only the abstract class has ever been uploaded to this site — no concrete estimator implementation exists yet. That's the real, current bottleneck on the whole pipeline, tracked on the Backtest-Only Audit.

multi_stage_pipeline.py — one real bug, found and noted

Records every stage's own channel decomposition unconditionally, in two trust modes: LIVE_GATE (a human approves each stage before advancing) and DEFERRED (runs straight through, but the same records still get generated — deferred means not checked live, not not recorded).

Real bug: the StageType enum has a stray DEFERRED member that doesn't belong to it — that value belongs conceptually to TrustMode, a copy-paste leftover:

class StageType(Enum):
    LINEAR = auto()
    FOUR_CHANNEL = auto()

    DEFERRED = auto()  # <- stray, unused, belongs to TrustMode not StageType

Harmless in practice — nothing reads it — but genuinely wrong, and worth fixing before it confuses a future reader into thinking a stage can be typed DEFERRED. Also found: a stale comment on TrustMode.DEFERRED claiming it was "never actually defined," directly contradicted by the line immediately below it defining it — a leftover note from before an earlier fix, never cleaned up.