NFL Strategy Backtest — Methodology and Findings
The interactive version renders via JavaScript. This page holds the same real methodology and results as static text, readable without executing anything.
The real breakeven line
52.38% — the actual win rate required to overcome standard -110 odds. Every strategy below is measured against this, not 50%.
The eight strategies tested, and the real result for each
| Strategy | Record | ATS % | Beats breakeven? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Always Home | 3,473–3,608 | 49.0% | No |
| Always Away | 3,608–3,473 | 51.0% | No |
| Always Favorite | 3,615–3,435 | 51.3% | No |
| Always Underdog | 3,435–3,615 | 48.7% | No |
| Home Underdogs Only | 2,223–2,381 | 48.3% | No |
| Road Favorites Only | 2,381–2,223 | 51.7% | No — closest, still short |
| Always Over | 3,545–3,625 | 49.4% | No |
| Always Under | 3,625–3,545 | 50.6% | No |
The actual finding
Not one of the eight simple, publicly-known, single-variable strategies beats the real breakeven line over 27 seasons of real games. That's the expected, credible result for an efficient market, not a disappointing one — it's evidence the closing line is doing its job. This dashboard exists specifically to show that naive rules don't have a real edge, as the honest baseline the multi-variable Strategy Composer is measured against.